The last week has been exhausting.
My phone has been ringing more than usual — friends, family, and readers texting or calling with the same mix of worry and confusion: “What the hell is going on with the markets?” One day oil is jumping on fears of prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The next, a hint from the White House that the conflict might wind down soon sends stocks rebounding sharply. Then another Trump headline hits, and everything swings the other way again.
I get it. When geopolitics mixes with your portfolio, it’s hard to tell what’s signal and what’s just noise. The swings feel personal because they are — they touch retirement accounts, college savings, and the sense of stability we all work hard for. If you’ve been watching your screen turn red and green like a traffic light gone haywire, you’re not alone. And you’re not crazy for feeling unsettled.
That’s why I’m writing this today. Not to predict the next headline or promise easy profits, but to walk through what’s actually happening, why markets are reacting this way, and — most importantly — how we can think clearly and protect what matters without losing our minds in the process.
Nothing in this article is financial advice. I don’t manage other people’s money, and I have no positions I’m trying to pump. I’m simply sharing the frameworks that have helped me (and many others) stay grounded during past crises like 2008, 2020, and 2022. My hope is that this helps you feel a little more in control.
The Current Situation, Without the Drama
We’re now more than a month into the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February. In his prime-time address to the nation on Wednesday night, President Trump said U.S. objectives are “nearing completion” and that the hard part is largely done. At the same time, he made clear that American forces will continue striking Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks, including infrastructure targets, with language about bringing parts of the country “back to the Stone Ages.”
Crucially, the speech offered no concrete plan or timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil and LNG normally flows. Iran has effectively disrupted commercial traffic there through threats and attacks on tankers, creating a real (if potentially temporary) supply shock.
Markets heard the mixed message loud and clear: possibility of resolution soon, but more pain and disruption in the immediate term.
How Markets Have Reacted This Week
The volatility has been textbook “geopolitical risk premium” in action:
Oil surged again after the speech (Brent crude up around 6–8% at points, trading near or above $105–107 per barrel depending on the exact moment you checked). Earlier in the week we saw dips toward $100 on de-escalation hopes, only for fresh headlines to reverse the move. Energy stocks have followed suit, while broader worries about higher gasoline prices (now averaging over $4/gallon in many places) and sticky inflation have weighed on sentiment.
Stocks have whipsawed. We’ve seen sharp rebounds on any sign the conflict might end quickly, followed by sell-offs when escalation language dominates. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow have all felt the pressure, with tech and growth names often hit harder because higher energy costs can feed inflation and delay rate cuts. Yet we’ve also seen quick recoveries when de-escalation rumors surface.
This isn’t the market pricing in World War III. It’s pricing in uncertainty: How long will this supply disruption last? How much will it feed inflation? And how patient will the Fed be?
The good news? History shows these geopolitical premiums often fade once the immediate shock passes — but the bad news is that “how long” is the part no one can predict with certainty right now.
The Only Questions That Actually Matter for Your Money
Here’s where I want to slow things down and focus on you, not the headlines.
Instead of asking “Where is oil going next?” or “Should I buy energy stocks today?”, the far more useful questions are:
What is my time horizon? If you’re investing for 5–10+ years, short-term volatility like this is usually noise. If you need the money in the next 1–2 years, protecting capital becomes priority number one.
How much volatility can I actually stomach? Be honest with yourself. Many of us say we can handle a 10–15% drop — until we’re living through it and the news is screaming. The “sleep at night” test is more reliable than any forecast.
What’s my current exposure? Do you already have meaningful holdings in energy, commodities, or inflation-sensitive assets? Or are you heavily tilted toward growth/tech that could suffer if oil stays elevated and rates stay higher for longer?
Take a few quiet minutes this weekend and run through these. Write down the answers. It’s one of the most caring things you can do for your future self.
Disciplined investors I respect aren’t rushing to “trade the news.” They’re doing a few calmer things instead:
Assess and rebalance if needed. If your portfolio has drifted too far because of recent energy moves, consider trimming winners or adding hedges — but only in small sizes.
Energy exposure as an option, not a mandate. Some are adding modest, well-defined positions in energy stocks or oil-related ETFs because the disruption is real. Others are staying on the sidelines. Both can be reasonable depending on your answers to the questions above. Use stops or defined risk if you do enter anything.
The power of doing less. In highly headline-driven environments, one of the best moves is often to pause new big bets. Let the dust settle. Markets have survived far worse shocks and eventually found their way back to fundamentals (earnings, innovation, long-term growth).
Keep some dry powder and perspective. Cash or short-duration bonds can provide ballast. Gold sometimes helps as a diversifier, though it hasn’t always behaved as a pure safe haven during this episode.
Above all: size any tactical moves tiny. Whipsaws are brutal, and the right move emotionally is rarely the right move financially.
Longer-Term Perspective on These Dips
One thing worth keeping in mind as we watch these swings is that we’re seeing some decent dips in broad market indices like the S&P 500. Historically, even from its worst drawdowns, the S&P has recovered in about six years on average. That’s not a guarantee, of course — past performance is never a promise — but it’s a helpful reminder that these kinds of geopolitical-driven pullbacks are often temporary when viewed on a multi-year horizon.
If you have long-term capital that you can truly stand to have tied up (money you won’t need for at least 5–6 years and that won’t cause you stress if it moves against you in the short run), this environment can create opportunities to buy quality exposure on weakness.
I actually really like trading UPRO, which gives you roughly 3.1x the daily move of the S&P 500 (SPY). That leverage means a 10% drawdown in the underlying index can translate to about a 30% recovery swing in UPRO once things turn around — which is powerful when timed thoughtfully. Personally, I would look to start buying UPRO if SPY hits the 618 to 620 zone. A recovery to former highs from there would be close to a 50% move in UPRO.
Of course I would never go all in; I would begin accumulating there in small, disciplined increments and only with money I’m fully comfortable risking.
What I’ll Be Watching — And What I Suggest You Watch Too
I’ll keep tracking a few key signals in future posts:
Any concrete progress (or lack thereof) on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Inflation data and Fed commentary — higher-for-longer energy costs could change the rate-cut outlook.
Broader risk sentiment: Are rebounds sticking, or do we keep seeing sharp reversals?
Specific price levels in the S&P 500. I’m personally watching the 618–620 zone on SPY as a potential area to begin accumulating UPRO in small increments (again, only with long-term capital I can afford to have tied up).
The bigger picture reminder: This feels chaotic, but it is most likely a temporary premium layered on top of longer-term trends, not a permanent rewrite of the economic rulebook.
You’re Not in This Alone
Markets have crashed parties before. They’ve recovered from worse. The key isn’t being the smartest trader on the block — it’s being the most disciplined and level-headed investor you can be.
I’m committed to showing up here with clear-eyed updates as this situation evolves. No hype, no panic, just honest thinking out loud with you.
If something in particular is keeping you up at night about this — a specific holding, fear about gas prices, or worry about your retirement timeline — hit reply and let me know. I read every response and will address the most common questions in next week’s piece.
In the meantime, take a deep breath. Check your portfolio once, not twenty times. Spend time with people you love this weekend. Your money is important, but it’s only one part of a good life.
Thank you for trusting me to be part of your inbox during messy times like these. I don’t take that lightly.
Stay steady,
Dustin Pass
Founder, Market Traders Daily